Met Office predicts 21C heat surge will mix with wind and rain in days

BBC Weather: UK set for 'milder temperatures' and thick cloud

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The Met Office has rubbished reports of an unseasonably warm Halloween just next week – but it has said the UK can expect warmer than normal temperatures beforehand. Large swathes of the south-east are set to bask in highs of 21C in the coming days – but this may be between periods of wet and windy conditions. While the mercury continues to dip up and down in the approach to Halloween, thermometers will still be freakishly mild over the last weekend of October, peaking at 18C across the south. A spokesman for the Met Office gave some indication of what can be expected.

Oli Claydon told Express.co.uk: “Halloween is still two weeks away and outside of our detailed forecast period, however our long term outlook for the UK suggests that low pressure will remain in charge of our weather with wet and windy spells and temperatures around average for the time of year. Further ahead it suggests more settled weather as we move into November.

“We are likely to see temperatures reaching 20 to 21C later this week, with milder than average temperatures across much of the UK by the end of the week. However with low pressure dominating the forecast it will also be wet and windy for many with spells of more settled sunny weather at times.”

The leading forecaster has blamed the temperature fluctuation on the wind direction “swinging” from west to east and back again this week – but that the sunshine will come through, making it feel rather warm by Friday.

Reports had initially suggested the mercury may rise even higher to 23C on Halloween weekend, but current weather maps show a peak of around 18C on Sunday, October 30.

In the latest week ahead forecast, the Met Office’s Alex Deakin said: “Looking at the bigger picture, high pressure is to the north, low pressure to the southwest. And this week is going to be a bit of a scrap between these two weather systems. Eventually, the low will win out.”

The interaction between the high and low pressure will result in some windy days too, as Mr Deakin continued: “As the low squeezes up against the high, the isobars push together, suggesting at times it’s going to be quite blustery.”

The change in weather patterns is evident by the constant change in conditions – with a risk of frost overnight for some early this week, and a blustery easterly wind bringing a chill to many on Wednesday.

But the Met Office said the southwesterly winds will return by Thursday, pulling warm air up from the near continent, and allowing bands of heavy showers to push across the UK.

Looking ahead to Friday, Mr Deakin continued: “There will be showers coming and going through the day. But, with a bit of sunshine, temperatures certainly in the southeast could be knocking on the door of 20C easily. And elsewhere, temperatures still will be well above average because the air is still coming up from the south.”

Jim Dale, a senior meteorologist for British Weather Services, said these warmer periods are still not enough to warrant an Indian Summer. Speaking to Express.co.uk he said: “No Indian Summer – we need to see cold then much above average warmth first – and we’re still waiting.”

Talking about the warmer conditions pushing into next week, he added: “It will be mild in the south, colder in the north but very mixed weather. It’s still too far away to have any certainty.”

A Met Office long range weather forecast, which covers the Halloween period, goes into a little more detail. It reads: “The weekend will be unsettled to start the period as bands of rain and showers move northeastwards across the country, with locally heavy and thundery showers possible in places, most likely in the southwest.

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“The showers likely interspersed with some brighter, dry spells for many. Fairly windy for most, with a risk of gales especially in southern regions.

“Into next week, low-pressure continuing to dominate causing generally unsettled conditions, bringing a mix of showers and sunny dry spells.

“Rainfall will be most persistent in the west, along with the potential of strong winds here.

“Temperatures generally mild in the south and west, with colder spells in the northeast. For the rest of the country, temperatures will be near normal, perhaps warm during sunny spells.”

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