Donald Trump election surge as pollster who called 2016 victory says ‘he will win again’

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Polls currently have Joe Biden by ten points nationally on the eve of election day. While polls undercounted President Trump’s support in the 2016 race, the Democrats have a bigger lead this time round as analysts scramble to pinpoint who will win the presidency. President Trump has received encouragement from polling coming out of Iowa, one of the key swing states in this election. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom opinion poll showed Mr Trump to be seven points ahead of Mr Biden, up from 41 percent to 48 percent.

There is still cause for concern for the Republicans, however, as the Guardian poll tracker still has the Democrats leading in six swing states.

As the race reaches its climax, a pollster that predicted the shock 2016 result says President Trump will win again, defying the majority of polling.

Robert Cahaly Chief Pollster of the Trafalgar Group told CNN that shy Trump supporters could make all the difference.

He said this week: “First and foremost we get a greater sense of anonymity.

“The more anonymous someone is, the more honest they are. The absolute worst way to poll these people is a live call where you have a person asking someone whether they support Trump.

“Everyone will know at least a few people who support Trump but don’t want to share it with anybody.”

He echoed this sentiment in an interview with Politico last week.

Mr Cahaly added: “There’s a lot of hidden Trump votes out there. Will Biden win the popular vote? Probably. I’m not even debating that. But I think Trump is likely to have an Electoral College victory.”

During his interview, Mr Cahaly also responded to criticism from other pollsters, who questioned Trafalgar Group’s “unconventional” approach.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, tweeted that some of the numbers coming from Mr Cahaly and co were crazy.

Responding to the criticism, Mr Cahaly said: “I am sure there are lots of guys like that, but they are going to be proven wrong again, and we will see who knows what they are doing and who doesn’t.”

In an interview with, US politics expert Professor Stephen Burman warned of constitutional crisis.

He said, in an “unlikely but plausible” scenario, the Republicans could hand themselves power despite losing.

Prof Burman said: “Donald Trump has teams of people who are challenging the validity of the polls and are looking for opportunities to cast doubt on their validity.

“They will claim almost certainly, if he loses, that many of the mail-in votes are invalid.”

Prof Burman highlights how a legal challenge over votes could create a scenario where the Republicans lose the election, but still hand themselves power.

He explained: “If they challenge this, it has to go to the courts. This could go to the Supreme Court within a month, although this is unlikely.

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“More likely, is that the legal cases go on and on, and when the Electoral College meets after the election, they usually agree to vote for the winner of that state from the election.

“But if nobody is declared the winner – and this could happen in a number of states – they are released from having to select a particular candidate.

“So if the Democrats win in a state, but it is still in dispute, then it falls to state legislators to choose representatives.

“Most of the state legislators are Republican, so they could give the election to Trump whatever the result of the election.”

The situation could result in even more hostility however, as Prof Burman explained that governors in states could step in and challenge state legislators.

In this scenario, Vice President Mike Pence could controversially hand the Republicans victory.

Prof Burman added that this could result in “chaos” and “violence in the streets”.

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